It still looks like Bolivians will elect Evo Morales, a coca farmer who\'s promised to make coca growing legal again, as the next president.  Elections will be held on the 18th of the month and Morales has an 32.8% to 27.7% lead over the other leading candidate Jorge \"Tuto\" Quiroga.  Morales lost the 2002 elections by a mere 2 points. No matter who wins, the likelihood of the next government lasting beyond the year is low.

But this being Bolivia, nothing is simple. Unless Mr Morales gains more than 50% at the polls, the next president will be decided by a Congress vote - which is likely to go against him. The outcome could be catastrophic, the country becoming once again riven with protest and instability.