Unintended consequences of relaxing lending standards...

Posted on Monday, Oct 6, 2008 at 10:10 PM in

If you're trying to figure out why we're in the financial mess we are in, I highly recommend reading the report linked below. From what I can gather, its a systemic failure, and one cause came from relaxing lending standards. While it helped many people who couldn't afford a home afford one, a lot of them, obviously couldn't keep their homes once their adjustable rate mortgages readjusted. I think a lot of people had an interest in a few metrics focused on measuring home ownership and didn't consider other potential effects of their policies, namely the influx of speculators and flippers who took advantage of said standards.

The weakening of mortgage-lending standards did succeed in increasing home ownership (discussed in more detail later). As home ownership rates increased there was self-congratulation all around. The community of regulators, academic specialists, and housing activists all reveled in the increase in home ownership and the increase in wealth brought about by home ownership. The decline in mortgage underwriting standards was universally praised as an "innovation" in mortgage lending.

Read it here: Anatomy of a Train Wreck: Policy Reports: The Independent Institute

The recent rise in foreclosures is not related empirically to the distinction between subprime and prime loans since both sustained the same percentage increase of foreclosures and at the same time. Nor is it consistent with the “nasty subprime lender” hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown. Instead, the important factor is the distinction between adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. This evidence is consistent with speculators turning and running when housing prices stopped rising.

Comments

Jason Lefkowitz says

This "study" appears to be another attempt to pin the blame for the current crisis on legislation like the Community Reinvestment Act, which required lenders to eliminate discriminatory practices from their lending decisions. (An example of this would be "redlining", the practice by which lenders refused to give mortgages to minorities who tried to buy homes outside designated minority neighborhoods.)

Blaming the CRA for the subprime crisis has become a favorite talking point among right-wingers, since it allows them to pin the blame on Democrats and black people rather than investment bankers and Republicans. If only the evil government hadn't forced us to loan money to to black people, the bankers say, none of this would have happened.

But there is little objective evidence to support this claim. Consider that 80% of the problematic subprime loans were made by institutions not subject to the CRA or other regulations the study is complaining about. The lenders who caused the subprime crisis were not depository banks; they were a new breed of non-bank lending companies that did not exist when the CRA was written. Additionally, the data shows that these new non-bank companies gave out subprime loans at twice the rate of depository banks, which doesn't suggest that fair-housing laws drove lenders to increase their exposure to risk. If anything, it suggests that those laws drove them in the opposite direction.

The Independent Institute is a corporate-funded libertarian think tank that has long advocated against any government intervention in the economy, most notably in 1999 when they were paid by Microsoft to run full-page ads in newspapers criticizing the Department of Justice for bringing antitrust charges against that company. So it's not surprising that they would be out now claiming that helping minorities be treated fairly by lenders is what brought the economy down. But just because they're spouting that line doesn't mean anybody should swallow it.

Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 09:42 AM

Jason Lefkowitz says

Your comment system appears to have once again eaten a comment from me. A multi-paragraph comment chock full of tasty links, no less.

Why does your comment system hate America?

;-)
Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 12:56 PM

Oscar says

You're comment wasn't approved. I guess I had programmed in something to detect views not wholly inline with my own.

As to the report, I didn't conclude that is was trying to pin the blame on minorities. Instead, policies meant to encourage broader lending, also extended credit to speculators and flippers. The latter is what inflated the housing bubble, and encouraged fairly risky investment/lending all around.

Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 02:32 PM

Jason Lefkowitz says

But the motivation is right there in the executive summary:

This report concludes that, in an attempt to increase home ownership, particularly by minorities and the less affluent, virtually every branch of the government undertook an attack on underwriting standards starting in the early 1990s.

The key to understand here is that when right-wingers talk about "unqualified borrowers", they're using it as a code word for "minorities". Because the only unqualified borrowers they're up in arms about are the minorities covered by the CRA.

Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 03:01 PM

Oscar says

We must read things in different ways. Just pointing out that the motivation for the policy is not the same thing as blaming minorities for causing the mortgage/housing default mess. I'll have to dig up a link I saw earlier showing that this class of lenders were not at fault in this ....
Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 03:31 PM

Sandy says

I read it as Oscar does--the author argues that, had the relaxed standards been means-tested or limited to minorities, the bubble wouldn't have happened. He's arguing that the same standards were applied to the more affluent, whiter population, who then proceeded to "flip" prices ever higher, assuming they could sell or refi the house based on a higher worth whenever they saw the end coming.

However, I think his graph of the interest rates for ARMs versus fixed mortgages actually shows that the whole system was artificially cheap in an attempt to soften the impact of the tech bubble burst (caused by overly-low interest rates in the first place), making this at least as much a Fed-driven bubble.
Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 03:37 PM

Jason Lefkowitz says

I guess I don't understand how anyone can read passages like

It is the thesis of this report that this large increase in defaults had been a potential problem waiting to happen for some time. The reason is that mortgage underwriting standards had been undermined by virtually every branch of the government since the early 1990s. The government had been attempting to increase home ownership in the U.S., which had been stagnant for several decades. In particular, the government had tried to increase home ownership among poor and minority Americans. Although a seemingly noble goal, the tool chosen to achieve this goal was one that endangered the entire mortgage enterprise: intentional weakening of the traditional mortgage-lending standards.

... as anything other than an assertion that the root cause of the crisis is the CRA and other attempts to "increase home ownership among poor and minority Americans".

And passages like this beggar belief:

Let’s not blame the speculators here. There is nothing wrong with speculation or speculators. At fault is a mortgage system run by flexible underwriting standards, which allowed these speculators to make bets on the housing market with other people’s money. It was a system that invited the applicant to lie about income. It was a system that induced applicants to watch a video instead of providing solid evidence about their financial condition.

Even that would not be so bad if the people making the money available were aware of its use and knew that they would have recourse to getting their money back. But the money for the speculation was made available by lenders who believed the housing and regulatory establishment when this housing and regulatory establishment said that such loans were safe. Since the housing and regulatory establishment consisted of mighty government agencies and highly educated academics, it was not unreasonable for the lenders to assume that the claims made for flexible underwriting standards were correct. Unfortunately, the claims were not correct although most of the housing and regulatory establishment continue to argue otherwise.

In other words, the bankers went against their better judgment to make these loans because "mighty government agencies" assured them they would be safe, and they quailed at the prospect of pushing back.

Does that sound like any investment banker you ever heard of? Quailing at the prospect of challenging bureaucrats and academics? If they really felt that way the screams from Wall Street would have been heard from coast to coast, which they of course were not. Wall Street wanted to make these loans because they thought they could make a ton of money off of them. Or in other words, "Law didn't make them lend. The profit motive did."

(For more detail, Slate has a piece today rounding up various other right wing outlets peddling these same talking points and debunking them pretty comprehensively.)

Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 05:46 PM

Oscar says

After reading those passages, my only conclusion is we should trust government even less with our money than ever. Government encouraged lending by convincing the lenders that the loans were safe, and, in my opinion implicitly gauranteeing the loans via Freddie & Fannie.

Are you saying that it was not a policy goal to increase home ownership, and the mechanism to help achieve that, relaxed lending standards, did not have unintended consequences?

If you're looking to blame anyone, I think theres plenty to go around and no one is innocent. Government pushed policies with a nominally laudable goal, business saw an opportunity to make money, and individuals saw a way to afford a home or more home than they would otherwise be able to. It all seemed to work well for a while, but then the wheels fell off.

I've already read that minority lending didn't exacerbate the problem, read Did "minority lending" drive the crisis? for a more sucint answer.
Posted Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 at 09:54 PM

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